Tag Archives: Deterrence

Where Do We Go From Here? Prospects for Mutual Deterrence Post the Hwasong-15 ICBM Test.

One of the, many, big questions occasioned by North Korea’s first test flight of its big new missile is where do we, but also where do they, go from here. To be sure not only Pyongyang and Washington are players … Continue reading

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North Korea’s Hwasong-15 ICBM and The Window of Vulnerability

In 1954 President Eisenhower exclaimed that, “soon even little countries will have a stockpile of these bombs, and then we will be in a mess.” Many have, correctly, emphasised that the Hwasong-15 ICBM is a big heavy missile. That’s half … Continue reading

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North Korea’s November 28 Hwasong-15 ICBM Test: Big Missile and Big Advance

North Korea’s new Hwasong-15 ICBM is, to be blunt, a big fucker. I write here a brief preliminary analysis. On November 28 North Korea test launched the new ICBM on a highly lofted trajectory reaching an apogee of 4,475km and … Continue reading

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Rationality and Nuclear Launch Authority

One of the more electorally telling advertisements in US political history was a 1964 LBJ campaign ad featuring a girl in the meadows picking away at a flower whilst an austere and mechanical voice in the background counts down to … Continue reading

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Will Nuclear Modernisation Nuke the Budget? The Narrow Basis of the Nuclear Modernisation Debate.

The Reagan administration turned the world’s leading creditor nation, the United States, into the world’s leading debtor nation with great haste and a key structural feature that underpinned this shift was the combination of supply side tax cuts for the … Continue reading

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Russia and the US Trade Nuclear Exercises and Nuclear Weapon Upgrades

Whilst the world’s attention has been focused on North Korea and Iran, the big boys relatively quietly continue to sharpen their nuclear swords. Russia had tested an RS-24 Yars ICBM with what Moscow billed as an “experimental warhead,” and in … Continue reading

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Australia and North Korea: Farewell Great and Powerful Friends?

For more than 10 years I have been writing about the North Korean nuclear crisis, arguing that it has serious potential implications for Australia. I had long argued that we are “sleepwalking” toward catastrophe, but oddly the issue barely gained … Continue reading

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Creating Instability to Create Stability: Trump’s Decertification of the Iran Nuclear Deal

President Trump has refused to certify that Iran is meeting its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, whilst at the same time announcing a new, more confrontational, approach to Iran. Trump did not terminate the agreement, but he … Continue reading

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North Korea’s Threat to Airburst a Hydrogen Bomb Over the Pacific: Causes and Consequences.

For 10 years, if not more, I have been writing in various fora regarding the North Korean nuclear crisis. I have always argued that without a change of course that we are “sleepwalking” toward catastrophe on the Korean peninsula, and … Continue reading

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Russia Tests RS-24 Yars ICBM and then BMD Goes Silent on the Hwasong-12

On September 12 Russia conducted a reliability test of the RS-24 Yars ICBM, which serves as a reminder that the established nuclear weapon states do so to maintain the credibility of their deterrent forces. North Korea, naturally, does and will … Continue reading

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