Tag Archives: Deterrence

Madmen: Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.

On Thursday November 8, hot on the heels of the midterm elections, North Korea’s envoy, Kim Yong-chol, was to meet Mike Pompeo and Steve Biegun in New York, however the meeting was abruptly cancelled. Multiple sources, including South Korean officials … Continue reading

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Trump is Trying to Block Moves Toward Peace in Korea

In many respects the summitry and working level meetings between North and South Korea can be seen as a series of steps toward the implementation of the Panmunjom Declaration, and the emphasis has been on achieving inter-Korean détente and rapprochement … Continue reading

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Iran’s Operation Muharram Strike and the Qiam Missile: Terminal Guidance and Improved Accuracy?

Doubtless we have all seen news of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone strikes against Islamic State targets in Deir Ez-Zor province in Syria bordering Iraq. Iran refers this military attack as Operation Muharram Strike. The attack, like an earlier one … Continue reading

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North Korea Marks 70th Anniversary of Its Founding in a Subdued Military Parade: Showcasing the Dimona Corollary to the Copenhagen Interpretation?

Sunday the 9th of September marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. North Korea celebrated the 70th anniversary in several ways, one of those being a military parade which almost exclusively attracted the … Continue reading

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CVID as OCD: Deciphering North Korea’s Dismantlement Moves at Sohae and Continued ICBM Assembly at Sanumdong.

Three news items related to North Korea’s nuclear programme have garnered attention in the last two weeks, the first evidence of North Korea’s move to dismantle its missile and rocket engine testing facility at Sohae, alleged evidence coming from the … Continue reading

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Framing North Korea’s Solid Fuel Missile Programme as First Strike Weapons

The week has seen further developments regarding North Korea’s solid fuel missile programme. I have already written about some of those developments here. Basically, it appears that North Korea is upgrading and preparing to upgrade production facilities associated with the … Continue reading

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The Road to Denuclearisation in Korea: Strategic Stability and Minimum Deterrence Now, Denuclearisation Through Economic Leverage Later

Rather than focus on denuclearisation the emphasis for now should be on mutual and balanced conventional force reductions on the Korean peninsula. Washington’s economic clout gives it leverage to demand denuclearisation thereafter. Denuclearisation continues to dominate the airwaves, with President … Continue reading

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North Korea and the Triumph of the Irrational: Strategic Stability Is More Rational Than Complete Denuclearisation.

The irrational has always triumphed in the North Korean nuclear crisis, and strategic stability, not complete denuclearisation, is the rational approach to pursue heading into the Kim-Trump Summit. The upcoming US-North Korea summit meeting has hit the proverbial snag, with … Continue reading

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Trump’s JCPOA Language Game: The Strategic Logic to JCPOA Withdrawal

Most commentary on the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, at least from the sane end of the spectrum, has made the point, firstly, that it is not based on a firm strategy, that it more reflects the warped impulses of … Continue reading

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Who Lost Korea? The Third Inter Korean Summit

The much anticipated Third Inter Korean Summit, this time between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in, has concluded amid much fanfare and some quite spectacular imagery. The first two Inter Korean summits proved, ultimately, to be failures and whether it will … Continue reading

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