Dissuasion and the Logical Fallacy in Trump’s Missile Defense Review
The 2019 Missile Defense Review is based on a growing missile threat, yet the Review claims missile defence dissuades states from growing their arsenals.
Ballistic Missile Defense
Full Spectrum FU: On Trump’s Withdrawal from the INF Treaty
Hitherto in the nuclear age humanity has relied upon a thin margin of survival provided by arms control, for arms control has tended to provide some measure of strategic stability and some reduction of nuclear dangers. For the most part arms control has functioned as a way of managing rivalry, […]
Framing North Korea’s Solid Fuel Missile Programme as First Strike Weapons
The week has seen further developments regarding North Korea’s solid fuel missile programme. I have already written about some of those developments here. Basically, it appears that North Korea is upgrading and preparing to upgrade production facilities associated with the manufacture of its solid fuelled missiles, the Pukgugksong-1 and 2 […]
The Road to Denuclearisation in Korea: Strategic Stability and Minimum Deterrence Now, Denuclearisation Through Economic Leverage Later
Rather than focus on denuclearisation the emphasis for now should be on mutual and balanced conventional force reductions on the Korean peninsula. Washington’s economic clout gives it leverage to demand denuclearisation thereafter. Denuclearisation continues to dominate the airwaves, with President Trump indicating that he is prepared to put denuclearisation on […]
Trump’s Effective Withdrawal from the JCPOA and the 123 Agreement Negotiations with Saudi Arabia
President Trump’s decision to not extend the waiver on US sanctions on Iran, officially not a US withdrawal but in effect one, means the United States is no longer in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear activities reached with Iran, the United States, the Permanent […]
Russia Reportedly Tests Nudol ASAT Weapon
Doubtless we have all seen the report of a sixth test by Russia of the Nudol, which the United States intelligence community assesses to be a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon or ASAT. The report comes to us courtesy of Ankit Panda of The Diplomat and is based on credible official […]
Back to the Future, 1984: Putin’s Announcement of New Strategic Nuclear Weapons Gives Us The Future We Never Had.
“What’s he going to do, drop a nuclear reactor on London?” So thought Niels Bohr when Werner Heisenberg showed him a drawing of what appeared to be a nuclear reactor during a mysterious meeting of the pair in Copenhagen during the war. That meeting still puzzles historians of science and […]
North Korea, the Negligence Doctrine and Catalytic War
Among nuclear weapon states there exists a subset that could be said to constitute a nuclear complex. A nuclear weapons complex consists of states that possess an intercontinental nuclear targeting capability, a capability that might see the states of the complex interact in advertent and inadvertent ways. North Korea, from […]
Tailored Deterrence and Nuclear War Fighting in the Trump Administration’s Leak Draft Nuclear Posture Review.
I have long argued that the concept of tailored deterrence will constitute the core of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, and it appears that my contention was indeed correct. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review has been much anticipated, and it appears that a draft has been leaked to […]
North Korea’s Hwasong-15 Reentry Vehicle and the Window of Vulnerability
Soyuz, Falcon-9, Ariane, Long March and so on are rockets whose purpose is to deliver a payload into space. Military missiles are no different, indeed this feature is more pronounced with military rockets, and the Hwasong-15 ICBM is a good case in point. The purpose of the Hwasong-15, the subject […]