Ballistic Missile Defense Archives

The Road to Denuclearisation in Korea: Strategic Stability and Minimum Deterrence Now, Denuclearisation Through Economic Leverage Later

June 6, 2018 Mbeljac 0

Rather than focus on denuclearisation the emphasis for now should be on mutual and balanced conventional force reductions on the Korean peninsula. Washington’s economic clout gives it leverage to demand denuclearisation thereafter. Denuclearisation continues to dominate the airwaves, with President Trump indicating that he is prepared to put denuclearisation on […]

Trump’s Effective Withdrawal from the JCPOA and the 123 Agreement Negotiations with Saudi Arabia

May 9, 2018 Mbeljac 0

President Trump’s decision to not extend the waiver on US sanctions on Iran, officially not a US withdrawal but in effect one, means the United States is no longer in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear activities reached with Iran, the United States, the Permanent […]

Russia Reportedly Tests Nudol ASAT Weapon

April 5, 2018 Mbeljac 0

Doubtless we have all seen the report of a sixth test by Russia of the Nudol, which the United States intelligence community assesses to be a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon or ASAT. The report comes to us courtesy of Ankit Panda of The Diplomat and is based on credible official […]

Back to the Future, 1984: Putin’s Announcement of New Strategic Nuclear Weapons Gives Us The Future We Never Had.

March 3, 2018 Mbeljac 0

“What’s he going to do, drop a nuclear reactor on London?” So thought Niels Bohr when Werner Heisenberg showed him a drawing of what appeared to be a nuclear reactor during a mysterious meeting of the pair in Copenhagen during the war. That meeting still puzzles historians of science and […]

North Korea, the Negligence Doctrine and Catalytic War

February 22, 2018 Mbeljac 0

Among nuclear weapon states there exists a subset that could be said to constitute a nuclear complex. A nuclear weapons complex consists of states that possess an intercontinental nuclear targeting capability, a capability that might see the states of the complex interact in advertent and inadvertent ways. North Korea, from […]

Tailored Deterrence and Nuclear War Fighting in the Trump Administration’s Leak Draft Nuclear Posture Review.

January 14, 2018 Mbeljac 0

I have long argued that the concept of tailored deterrence will constitute the core of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, and it appears that my contention was indeed correct. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review has been much anticipated, and it appears that a draft has been leaked to […]

North Korea’s Hwasong-15 Reentry Vehicle and the Window of Vulnerability

December 12, 2017 Mbeljac 0

Soyuz, Falcon-9, Ariane, Long March and so on are rockets whose purpose is to deliver a payload into space. Military missiles are no different, indeed this feature is more pronounced with military rockets, and the Hwasong-15 ICBM is a good case in point. The purpose of the Hwasong-15, the subject […]

Where Do We Go From Here? Prospects for Mutual Deterrence Post the Hwasong-15 ICBM Test.

December 6, 2017 Mbeljac 0

One of the, many, big questions occasioned by North Korea’s first test flight of its big new missile is where do we, but also where do they, go from here. To be sure not only Pyongyang and Washington are players here, so are Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow but I […]

North Korea’s November 28 Hwasong-15 ICBM Test: Big Missile and Big Advance

November 30, 2017 Mbeljac 0

North Korea’s new Hwasong-15 ICBM is, to be blunt, a big fucker. I write here a brief preliminary analysis. On November 28 North Korea test launched the new ICBM on a highly lofted trajectory reaching an apogee of 4,475km and a range of 950km. The launch appears to have been […]

Russia and the US Trade Nuclear Exercises and Nuclear Weapon Upgrades

November 2, 2017 Mbeljac 0

Whilst the world’s attention has been focused on North Korea and Iran, the big boys relatively quietly continue to sharpen their nuclear swords. Russia had tested an RS-24 Yars ICBM with what Moscow billed as an “experimental warhead,” and in this case that billing was quite accurate. Podvig discusses how […]

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