Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis is Correct

May 14, 2016 Agrippa 0

According to neoclassical free market economics, which has it that markets know best, markets are efficient as they incorporate all available information. In particular, financial markets are efficient and they are not prone to mania, bubbles, and spectacular crashes. This view of markets has been dominant, and has framed, indeed […]

The Sarmat ICBM and Hypersonic Warheads

May 13, 2016 Agrippa 0

2016 is supposed to see the first flight tests of the Russian replacement to the SS 18 “heavy” land and silo based SS-18 ICBM, and the missile, known as “Sarmat,” is scheduled to start entering into service in 2018. The SS 18 is the missile that formed the basis of […]

Blurring the Threshold Between Nuclear and Conventional War

May 13, 2016 Agrippa 0

I will be doing everything that I can to attend the Pine Gap peace convergence, near Alice Springs, in late September – early October. Pavel Podvig, an American analyst of Russian providence, writing for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, reminds us why activism of this type remains important. Podvig […]

The Gettier Problem in the Philosophy of Science.

May 12, 2016 Agrippa 3

Philosophy of science has a curious relationship to epistemology, or the theory of knowledge. There is little doubt that in the 20th century the philosophy of science took on a life of its own largely independent of epistemology. Interestingly, given that we begin by making an historical observation, some of […]

Who Was David Hume? A Rationalist, of course!

May 9, 2016 Agrippa 0

One must grant a belated happy birthday to David Hume (May 07, 1711), one of history’s most insightful thinkers and a favoured philosopher of mine despite the conservatism that is often associated with him. Gottlieb, in a timely review of a new intellectual biography of Hume, observes, “in 2009, he […]

What’s in a Missile Engine? Heaps, if it’s North Korean

May 2, 2016 Agrippa 0

Hitherto, among serious analysts, two major technical limitations have been seen as characterising North Korea’s strategic programme. The first is the drive to develop a nuclear warhead of relatively low throw weight, light enough for an ICBM programme and even light enough for use against South Korea and Japan. North […]

Kuhnian Anomalies and Evolutionary Thought

April 23, 2016 Agrippa 0

One thing that interests me is the question of anomalies and the structure of scientific revolutions as per Thomas Kuhn. We tend to associate anomalies and revolutionary science with the physical sciences, most especially physics. This is unsurprising because ours is a society where physics has become the queen of […]